From the monthly archives:

December 2007

Illegal Immigration And The Housing Market

by Wade Young on December 29, 2007

illegal-immigration-and-the-housing-market

There weren’t any Ninja loans in 1945; hence homeownership rates were lower than today’s rates. As you can see from the graph below, the homeownership rate in 1900 was just above 45%, whereas today’s home ownership rate is in the neighborhood of 70%.

Home ownership rate chart

New housing starts are on the down slide, which is more than bothersome given that a house is the largest purchase people make. We all know that a healthy economy needs new housing starts because a new foundation being poured spurs everything from Home Depot purchases to gas consumption to landscaping services.

The problem is this: how do you sell water to someone who already has a well? You don’t. If you have water for sale, you need to find a market of people who do not have water. Because the home ownership rate in the U.S. is so high, there isn’t a large enough market of people who need to buy homes who do not already have homes. If 70% of people own a home, that accounts for most of the potential home buying market. A significant number of people either do not want to own a home or may never be qualified to own a home. The baby boom is over too, so we cannot rely on population growth. We are doing better than Europe in that we are at least close to replacing our population. What, then, are we to do?

Answer: allow illegal Mexicans to stream over our borders for decades. I used to scratch my head at why the politicians had looked the other way for so many decades while Mexicans took up illegal residence in our country. Could it be that they knew that we would need these people once homeownership rates hit a certain ceiling?

I do some keyword research for web purposes, and I’m starting to see “bilingual” show up in search terms related to mortgages. That means there is a significant demand for housing from first generation illegal immigrants. Assuming there are 10-20 million illegal immigrants in our country, we are going to have a Mexican-American baby boom of sorts inevitably. Those children will be raised in American culture and will create a significant demand for housing. Sure, illegal immigrants currently live in modest homes, but the second generation will be a whole new crop of truly new first time home buyers. They will want 3,000 square feet in the suburbs too. They will want to move up the socio-economic rung, creating significant housing demand.

If we gave those 10-20 million illegals the boot tomorrow, what would happen to the housing market? There would be millions of empty residences across the country as a result of the illegal alien exodus leaving landlords without tenants. Property taxes would go unpaid, and in turn, school revenues would go down. Foreclosures would go up … and, well, you know the rest. The grocery stores would even sell fewer candy bars. We would also eliminate a huge pool of future housing demand. I am scratching my head wondering if the housing market is a key reason why illegal immigrants were allowed across our border in the first place and why they are being allowed to stay now.

Posted by: Wade Young, Colorado Mortgage Broker

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Zillow Mortgage Prediction.

by Todd Carpenter on December 29, 2007

zillow-mortgage-prediction

Update - Zillow Mortage Marketplace has launched. My full review is linked. 

This fall I wrote a multipart series on how I would build Zillow Mortgage. Today, I see Joel is asking for 2008 Zillow predictions. Limiting my self to just the mortgage side, how I would build Zillow Mortgage and what I think Zillow will do are not the same thing.

What Zillow Mortgage will not be.

It wont be a direct lender, a secondary lender, a mortgage broker, banker, corespondent, or any model that originates loans. Zillow hasn’t disintermediated a single real estate agent, I see no reason why they would try something different with loan originators, especially in the current political and business climate.

Zillow will not be a red pill, or a blue pill. Consumers increasingly distrust the Bankrate model and I’m not entirely sure if Lending Tree will even be around much longer to execute the Lending Tree model. I’ll say right now that if Zillow emulates either of these models, the title of my review for their mortgage product will be, “I was wrong, and Zillow is stupid”.

What Zillow Mortgage will be.

Zillow’s business model is really no different than Google’s. Generate page views, and sell advertising. I don’t think Zillow’s mortgage product will be any different. What the Zillow brain-trust is doing right now is figuring how to develop traffic driving tools like the Zindex and Zestimate for the mortgage vertical.

I’m betting my Zcore idea is in the mix, but here are two other possible tools they might be working on.

A closed loan, localized mortgage rate index. Zillow is already pouring through local data of new home purchases to feed data to the Zestimate. Acquiring the interest rate of the mortgages on these homes is a trivial additional endeavor. I can buy a list of borrowers with 8% mortgages from a leads vendor. What nobody has done before, is make that data available to consumers. Now, I’m not saying they should tell the public the interest rate of each and every borrower, that would anger quite a few people. But they could use the data all the way down to a block by block average, or a neighborhood, town, state…

A interest rate pricing engine. Mathew Kelly’s first post on Geek Estate talks about some of the tools that makes an originator’s job so much easier. Zillow can easily build something similar, but at the consumer level. We’re talking about decade old technology here. Let the consumer enter in the data themselves, scrub it against the same lender provided data that LO’s use, attach an average margin via data from the above index, and viola, you got yourself a consumer grade pricing engine.

I know what every originator reading this is thinking,

“They can’t even get Zestimates right, data on rates is going to be a nightmare!”

But think for a second. It’s not a nightmare for Zillow. It’s a nightmare for you. Zillow is counting on some angry, and vocal loan originators to talk about how irresponsible and incorrect the data is. I think they will be hoping for it. A year and a half ago, real estate agents across the land yelled and screamed about Zestimates, and it translated into millions of monthly page views for Zillow. Now, what did I say about Zillow’s business model?

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Refining defense of title insurance

by Diane Cipa on December 28, 2007

refining-defense-of-title-insurance

I spent many months of this last year or so defending title insurance as a product.

I need to refine that argument and defend title insurance as a product only when it is issued in combination with a full traditional title abstract and examination.

The need for this refinement would have seemed ludicrous just a few short years ago when title insurers for their own safety would have demanded nothing less. Now, however, we find ourselves at odds with title insurers and standing in defense of quality must argue our case directly to the public and help them understand. Let’s start with a few simple definitions.

How do you define a full traditional abstract? Each state based upon peculiarities of custom, law and recordkeeping will have some variations, but suffice it to say that a full traditional abstract is a courthouse search performed by a professional fully trained human who is intimately familiar with the records of the county in which the real estate resides.

The records related to that parcel are searched backwards in time to a point that eliminates likely claims. In my market - western Pennsylvania - the custom for a residential property is a minimum 60 year period. This represents the lifetime of a party likely to raise issues. Commercial transactions or searches involving mineral rights would likely go back even further.

The fully trained human abstractor performs a preliminary examination of title as they search and expands the search to other areas of interest such as the Register of Wills as needed to give the final examiner a full report. The prothonotary office is checked for any suits or judgments against buyer or seller and the tax office as also checked.

The abstract report includes a chain of title, copy of the current deed and any other deeds that contain items of interest. Some abstractors provide copies of all deeds in the chain and this can be quite helpful when the final examiner is pondering a problem. The abstractor also includes mortgage, liens or encumbrances, all exceptions, copies of plans or tax maps, lots and lots of information.

You could write a book on what should be included in a full abstract but the point I am trying to make here is that a full traditional abstract must be performed by a trained professional and it takes time and costs some money but it’s worth it.

How do you define a full traditional examination? Well, the abstract of title is just one part of the examination process. While the abstractor is busy at the courthouse, the examiner is obtaining lien letters from municipal agencies and tax authorities. The examiner is also checking the federal Pacer system for federal issues and bankruptcies and the state child support system for arrearage liens - and of course, the terrorist list. All of these letters and system checks cover potential unfiled liens or title issues that won’t appear in the courthouse records.

Once the file is complete, the examiner combs through and pieces together a puzzle of sorts. I like to start with the sales agreement. It’s already been reviewed by other members of my staff but I check it again to see if there are proposed new easements or other items that might have been missed. I also look to see the form of warranty deed the parties have agreed to and whether there were any buyers listed who need to be released from the transaction.

Then I review the plotting. We plot every parcel for which we have a metes and bounds description. I compare this plotting to available maps.

I review all of the lien letters making sure all outstanding balances have been noted and checking to see that the names, addresses, and tax map numbers all match our abstract.

Finally, I review the abstract. We review every piece of paper provided - looking for exceptions, outsales, life estates - whatever. Yes, the abstractor has done a preiminary review but it’s our job to doublecheck the work and give it our final stamp of approval.

As I have reviewed each document I make notes for our staff concerning any matters which must be corrected before a title insurance policy can be issued. These may be simple matters such as mortgage payoffs or they may be much more complex.

[Holy moly - just this week we have a title with 50/50 split ownership in two different trusts. One 50% portion has an unsatisfied mortgage from private individuals who are now deceased. One of them shot the other before committing suicide raising the slayers act. So now, we have to deal with two estates on that one 50% portion to get a satisfaction and we have also inheritance tax issues on the other 50% portion because the settlor died. YOI!]

Once all of this examination is complete, I create a title insurance commitment which identifies the proposed insureds, the property, the items to be resolved prior to the issuance of a policy and the exceptions to the coverage. We fax a copy of the commitment to the mortgage lender along with a closing services letter and taxes. We mail a copy of the title commitment to the buyer along with a copy of our plotting, maps, and any restrictions or odd exceptions that might be if interest.

That’s one heck of a lot of work. It takes time. It takes expertise and a commitment to quality.

A consumer who buys their title insurance from my office following this kind of procedure is buying a very different product than the one offered by the “new” kind of title agent though THE PRICE IS THE SAME.

The “new” kind of title agent gets a short report or instant report on the current owner, does little, if any further examination, may or may not actually create the title commitment themselves. Many get it downloaded, ready to sign. They never heard of plotting and can’t understand why we’d care and I’d bet my life they wouldn’t give the consumer copies of any documents to review before closing.

This “new” kind of title agent doesn’t look for title problems and so doesn’t find title problems and so doesn’t correct problems before issuing a title policy.

The consumer is PAYING for examination but getting none.

Yes, the consumer is insured, but they paid for preventative protection and didn’t get it. This means that they are exposed to increased risk. That is something they did not bargain for.

I argue that these “new” title agents are not bargaining in good faith and that they are selling a less than adequate product to the public.

I ask, respectfully, that those in power, look at the qualifications of the abstractors and the examiners. I ask that they look at the methodology and systemic procedures used to create title insurance and consider whether or not we have a need for organized reform.

I will, as always, defend title insurance as a product, but only in tandem with defense of full traditional abstract and examination of title………

…..and payment in full for services rendered……

heh heh - bet you thought I’d forget that part. ;)

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Silly Friday Post - New Year’s Eve Shopping Idea

by Todd Carpenter on December 28, 2007

Here’s an idea to spice up those new years eve plans of yours.

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I was busy in 2007

by Todd Carpenter on December 27, 2007

i-was-busy-in-2007

Before I make goals for the new year, I look back at what I accomplished. 2007 is the year I got serious about blogging as a primary career. Here’s what I came up with:

I joined the Inman News Blog. I considered the invitation to join a considerable honor, and immediately accepted. Not because I admire Brad, or because Inman is very well known in the real estate world, or because they had recruited an impressive list of bloggers to join them. That’s all true, but I joined because my mother, another industry pro, reads Inman, and suddenly she had a huge “ah-ha” moment that what I was doing was going to go somewhere. On behalf of my mother and myself, I would like to thank Jessica Swesey for inviting me to participate.

I started the REMBEX search engine. Greg Swann of Bloodhound blog called it an “insanely great idea”. It’s now found in the sidebars of many of the top RE blogs.

I organized an local bloggers networking event. I drew forty bloggers together for some tacos and real world face time.

I started my own social networking blog. Blog Fiesta was born from my networking conference. I used it to interview more than 40 of the top RE bloggers, and establish myself as a resource for aspiring bloggers.

I went out and met more bloggers at the national level. First, at Bloggers Connect, then at Blog World. What I know about Web 2.0 is exponentially greater today than one year ago. I also know more real estate agents now, then at any point in my career.

I revamped and revitalized my Denver Modern Homes Blog. It occurred to me that as more and more real estate agents ask for my advice about real estate blogging, it would be better to have more real world experience on the real estate side of the equation. I’ve been offering up advice on how to blog for nearly as long as I’ve had a blog of my own. But lenderama is nothing like a local real estate blog. I knew my ideas would work, and this blog is proof of it.

I connected with a new business partner. Jason Burman is the former president of CAMB and has a hand in organizing conferences and education events for NAMB.

I turned the volume up on lenderama’s megaphone as a voice in the mortgage industry. Traffic is way up for the year. Considering how many readers are now working at Burger King instead of origination, I’m extremely happy that we are up at all.

I took on contributors. Recruiting good bloggers is actually far harder than I would have thought. I can’t tell you how happy I am with where we are now. In many ways, I feel like letting them outshine me will only help this blog’s credibility and readership. I’m going to take more of an editor’s role here, and concentrate on bringing in even more talent.

Finally, I put the wheels in motion for 2008. On tap is a new blog, an Internet Radio Show, training, speaking engagements, an altogether new type of network, and real world events.

If it sounds like I’m bragging, okay, maybe I am. The intent of this post was to tell you that while many loan originators are hanging onto the old ways, or leaving the business altogether, there’s a mountain of opportunity out there. 2007 was one of the most fulfilling years of my career. If it wasn’t for you, maybe it’s time to change the way you’re doing things.

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