Sorry this one is out late today, but I have been catching up on last week’s events, their effects on the market and much more. It is not easy returning from a week’s vacation when you cut yourself off from what is going on.
As I mentioned, a lot of volatility occurred throughout the week and bonds remained in their trading range, dropping to test their support at the 50-day MA several times. It wasn’t until Friday that bonds gathered some strength and broke away from that level. So what happened?
Bear Stearn’s $2 buyout became a $10 buyout to get the week started and bonds had the rug pulled out and they hit the floor (50-day MA). As the week continued, mixed news on the housing sector and a drop in consumer confidence got bonds a little bounce. Then came jobless claims and bonds fell to the floor again. The week ended with a PCE report right at 2%, which is better than expected and bonds rallied.
Overall, as I expected, rates were higher at the during the week, but bonds did gain some strength as the week ended, keeping rates about the same as when the week started.
This week is off to a flat start, but don’t expect that to be the case throughout the week, especially Friday. The roller coaster ride will likely continue. Bonds did head higher on the Chicago PMI data, but turned lower and looks to end unchanged for the day. The main event will be Friday’s Jobs Jamboree. Here is a more thorough breakdown:
- Monday: Chicago PMI (9:45)
- Tuesday: ISM Index (10:00)
- Wednesday: ADP Report (8:15), Crude Inventories (10:30)
- Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (8:30), ISM Services Index (10:00)
- Friday: Non-farm Payrolls (8:30), Unemployment Rate (8:30), Hourly Earnings (8:30), Average Work Week (8:30)
As the week progresses, expect some more wild swings as the data flows. The jobs data will likely set the stage for whether or not bonds can break out of their current trading range. Expectations favor bonds, so let’s start the week floating in anticipation.
Mortgage Industry Professionals. Like what you see?
SUBSCRIBE for free by RSS or email, and never miss a post!
1 response so far ↓
1 VA Refinance // Mar 31, 2008 at 6:27 pm
Robert you dont need to appoligize for being out of the loop because of being on vacation. I think we all would reather be on vacation then seing the swings we have been seeing in the bond the past couple of weeks. It sure is good to have someone that keeps us all in the loop about the market.Lets just hope that the end of this week continues to improve.
You know you want to leave a comment!
First time comments will be moderated before publishing. All voices and opinions are welcome so long as you conduct yourself in a professional manner, and contribute to the conversation at hand.